这是迄今为止死于冠状病毒的人数,以及公共卫生官员对可预见的未来的预测。

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社交媒体上有很多关于美国如何统计冠状病毒死亡人数以及死于COVID-19的总体风险是高于还是低于季节性流感。所以让我们把事情弄清楚。这是迄今为止死于冠状病毒的人数,以及公共卫生官员对可预见的未来的预测。

截至9月24日,美国新冠肺炎死亡人数超过20.2万人。这是基于约翰·霍普金斯大学冠状病毒研究中心独立汇总和分析的数据。美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)的公开报告稍晚一些,统计的死亡人数为200275人——所以大致相同。根据华盛顿大学的最新估计,除非今年秋冬几乎所有人都戴口罩,否则到2021年1月1日,死亡人数可能超过37.8万人卫生计量和评价研究所

通常是死者的主治医生,有时是法医或验尸官,在死亡证明上记录死亡原因。“死亡医学证明”在每个州和哥伦比亚特区都有,而不是在全国范围内。尽管社交媒体上有虚假的说法,但没有证据表明有任何协调一致的企图来抬高或降低数字。“有错误吗?当然有,很可能是双向的,”弗吉尼亚州布莱克斯堡的弗吉尼亚理工大学理学院的统计学教授兼高级副院长罗恩·弗里克说。“但一般来说,这是医学专业人士对某人死亡原因做出的医学判断。”

死于冠状病毒的人通常还患有其他疾病。但是,当一种疾病被确定为死亡的“根本原因”时,这意味着它“引发了一系列直接导致死亡的病态事件”世界卫生组织的定义。弗里克说,在涉及到COVID的情况下,它通常是“导致(死亡)直接原因的东西”健康

追踪这些趋势的流行病学家和统计学家表示,如果有什么区别的话,那就是基于美国发生的“超额死亡”人数,美国COVID死亡人数被低估了。

什么是超额死亡?关于冠状病毒死亡,这告诉了我们什么?

超额死亡,或死亡率,是帮助公共卫生官员比较特定时间段内预计发生的死亡人数(基于历史趋势)和实际死亡人数的一个指标。还记得新冠肺炎病例在春季的最初高峰吗?在截至4月11日的一周内,美国疾病控制与预防中心记录了超过7.8万人因各种原因死亡。这远远高于同期预计死亡人数的5.6万至5.8万。根据美国疾病控制与预防中心的数据,7月和8月又出现了一波冠状病毒浪潮,在此期间,死亡率在10%至20%之间。

弗里克指出:“我们的死亡人数超出了我们在典型年份的夏季预期,这一事实证明了大流行导致死亡的事实是可信的。”

那么,美国冠状病毒的总死亡率是多少?这与流感相比如何?

冠状病毒死亡可以有不同的表达方式,没有一种是完美的。“感染病死率”是指感染者死亡的比例,而“病死率”是指确诊病例中死亡的比例。另一种衡量COVID死亡人数的方法是查看总死亡率,即冠状病毒死亡人数占整个美国人口的百分比。

但在没有广泛检测的情况下,很难知道有多少人曾经感染过这种病毒,或者现在感染了这种病毒。西雅图弗雷德·哈钦森癌症研究中心公共卫生科学部的生物统计学家、教授Ruth Etzioni说:“基本上,我们有一座冰山:我们有一个顶端,可能在下面一点。”她说,“在我们知道冰山有多深之前”,实际的死亡率仍然难以捉摸健康

我们知道冠状病毒已经夺走了比一般情况下更多的生命流感季节.弗里克说:“我们现在所经历的情况是一般流感年的6倍。”这一年还没有结束。事实上,4月底对印第安纳州居民的随机抽样发现,该州只有2.8%的人口感染了或已经感染了冠状病毒。通过了解实际感染人数,作者估计感染致死率为六倍比0.1%的流感死亡率高

安东尼·福奇,医学博士,国家过敏研究所所长传染性疾病他曾多次公开表示,COVID-19的致死率是流感的10倍。那死亡率就只有1%弗里克承认,可能是“1%的正负值”,但他说,在我们更好地掌握COVID患者的数量之前,我们无法知道实际的比率,这就回到了检测上。

COVID-19存活的几率有多大?

死亡的另一面是生存,这方面的情况也很模糊。99%的存活率听起来令人印象深刻,但死亡并不是唯一的结果。有很多人病得很重,一些人需要住院治疗,许多人患有感染的长期并发症。一个人的情况可能取决于年龄、性别、种族和其他健康状况。

这个图表来自疾控中心的数据描述了按年龄划分的冠状病毒住院率和死亡率。30至39岁人群的住院率是18至29岁人群的两倍,而这一年龄较大人群的死亡率是年轻成年人的四倍。当你将老年人与18至29岁的人口进行比较时,住院率和死亡率要高出许多倍。

截至发稿时,这篇报道中的信息是准确的。然而,随着COVID-19疫情的持续发展,一些数据在发布后可能发生了变化。《健康》杂志正在努力使我们的报道尽可能保持最新,我们也鼓励读者通过使用疾病预防控制中心和当地公共卫生部门作为资源。

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The virus that causes COVID-19 is called SARS-CoV-2, short for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. It is a type of coronavirus similar to the one that causes SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "Fever or chills", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 1943, "lastModified": "2021-12-04T02:57:43.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Fever dreams", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 100640, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:43:24.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Diarrhea or loose stools", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 18265, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Breathing difficulties or shortness of breath", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 2545, "lastModified": "2021-12-04T18:16:18.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "This is not a possible symptom of COVID-19:", "question_id": "Q2", "answer_description": "

You might have wild dreams when you're ill—fever can do that. But bizarre or emotionally intense fever dreams are not recognized as a symptom of COVID-19.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "Wear a mask", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 7585, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T07:14:04.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Wash your hands", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 42418, "lastModified": "2021-12-04T05:10:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Maintain social distance from others", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 6639, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Wipe down groceries packaged in cardboard or plastic wrap with bleach", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 66753, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:43:24.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "To slow the spread of COVID-19, don't do this:", "question_id": "Q3", "answer_description": "

CDC specifically warns against using disinfecting products on food or food packaging. You don't want to accidentally taint your food. Plus, the risk of COVID-19 from handling or consuming food is thought to be low. Use disinfectants like bleach to wipe down tables, countertops, and faucets

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "A multi-layer medical procedure mask (aka a surgical mask or disposable face mask)", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 9973, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T10:57:38.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "A mask with a vent or valve", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 87090, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "A cloth mask made of two or more breathable, washable layers", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 20046, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:18:10.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "A cloth mask over a surgical mask", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 6285, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T13:44:26.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "Which masking option is least effective for stopping the spread of COVID-19?", "question_id": "Q4", "answer_description": "

If your mask has a vent or valve, respiratory particles may escape and reach other people. Opt instead for a well-fitting mask with multiple layers, or wear a cloth mask over a disposable mask to secure the underlying mask to your face.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "Anal swab testing", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 105108, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Nasal swab testing", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 12194, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T13:44:26.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Saliva testing", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 3500, "lastModified": "2021-12-03T21:47:35.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Throat swab testing", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 2592, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T00:31:34.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "Which COVID-19 screening method is not routinely in use in the US?", "question_id": "Q5", "answer_description": "

Most diagnostic tests rely on mucus collected from your nose or throat, and some use saliva that you spit into a test tube. While China is using anal swab testing, that method hasn't caught on in the US.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "2 to 12 hours", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 5805, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T14:53:08.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "3 days", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 27947, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "14 days", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 88767, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:02:26.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "30 days", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 875, "lastModified": "2021-12-01T04:27:41.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "How long is the incubation period—the amount time from when you are infected with the novel coronavirus to when you exhibit symptoms?", "question_id": "Q6", "answer_description": "

The incubation is thought to be 14 days, with a median of 4 to 5 days. (But keep in mind that some people never develop symptoms).

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "A variant", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 84623, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "A high viral load", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 9576, "lastModified": "2021-11-28T15:57:08.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "A vaccine", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 11490, "lastModified": "2021-11-30T21:39:14.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Another virus, like influenza", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 17706, "lastModified": "2021-12-04T19:59:14.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "A mutated version of the virus that causes COVID-19 is called:", "question_id": "Q7", "answer_description": "

Variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 have been identified in the US and around the world. Scientists are studying these variants to learn how they spread and whether current vaccines will protect against them.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "Researchers have coined the term \"coronaphobia\" to describe the fear of contracting COVID-19", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 10610, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T16:42:31.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "The virus that causes COVID-19 can sometimes spread through tiny airborne particles", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 14977, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T07:14:04.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "The term \"long-haulers\" refers to people who experience long-term coronavirus symptoms", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 6579, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T05:46:31.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "COVID-19 is just like having the seasonal flu", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 91230, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "Which of the following statements is false?", "question_id": "Q8", "answer_description": "

Early on, some people speculated that the novel coronavirus would behave like the seasonal flu. Now we know COVID-19 is much more contagious and spreads more rapidly than influenza.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "Women who want to become pregnant some day", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 11385, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T01:54:46.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Anyone who has had a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) to any vaccine ingredient", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 69342, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "People who have recovered from COVID-19", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 10173, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T06:57:24.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "People with underlying medical conditions", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 32495, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T15:57:11.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "Who should not get a COVID-19 vaccine?", "question_id": "Q9", "answer_description": "

CDC does not recommend COVID vaccination if you've had a severe allergic reaction to any COVID vaccine ingredient. Contact your doctor if you have questions about whether it's safe for you to be vaccinated.

" }, { "answer_choices": [ { "answer_title": "You can't get COVID-19 from a COVID-19 shot", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A1", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 20440, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:43:24.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "Side effects are generally mild and short-lived", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A2", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 8168, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:45:01.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "It can take a few weeks after getting vaccinated for your body to build immunity to the virus", "correct_answer": false, "answer_id": "A3", "answer_value": 0, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 4821, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T16:22:34.000Z" } }, { "answer_title": "None of the above", "correct_answer": true, "answer_id": "A4", "answer_value": 1, "$vf_selected_count": { "value": 89966, "lastModified": "2021-12-05T17:18:10.000Z" } } ], "answer_type": "text", "question_title": "Which of the following statements about COVID-19 are false?", "question_id": "Q10", "answer_description": "

Vaccination is safe, effective, and an important tool for beating the pandemic.

" } ], "description": "

News about the novel coronavirus is breaking nearly 24-7, which makes it challenging at best to keep up with the latest scientific evidence, especially when you're bombarded by false or misleading claims on social media. So how much do you really know about COVID-19? Take our quiz to gauge how knowledgeable you are.

", "gate": "none", "intro_page": true, "uuid": "c5d20a0c-6b54-4691-ac5b-7362b5c9e58c", "brand": "health", "headline": "Quiz: How Much Do You Know About Coronavirus?", "results": [ { "result_starting_range": 0, "button": { "_type": "button", "title": "Start Learning More", "src": "https://x.specialoffers.meredith.com/ats/show.aspx?cr=588&fm=201®source=20571" }, "result_ending_range": 3, "result_description": "

Time to bone up on the basic facts about COVID-19. Check out our COVID-19 condition center and subscribe to our daily Healthy Living newsletter and never miss an update.

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While Health is trying to keep our content as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDCWHO, and their local public health department as resources.

", "result_title": "Not Much." }, { "result_starting_range": 4, "button": { "_type": "button", "title": "Learn Some More", "src": "https://x.specialoffers.meredith.com/ats/show.aspx?cr=588&fm=201®source=20571" }, "result_ending_range": 6, "result_description": "

Not bad, but there’s much more to know about this illness. Subscribe to our daily Healthy Living newsletter and never miss an update.

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More on COVID-19:

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Is the Coronavirus Worse Than the Flu? Here’s How the Two Illnesses Compare

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While Health is trying to keep our content as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDCWHO, and their local public health department as resources.

", "result_title": "You Know Some Things About Some Things." }, { "result_starting_range": 7, "button": { "_type": "button", "title": "Stay Updated with Newsletters", "src": "https://x.specialoffers.meredith.com/ats/show.aspx?cr=588&fm=201®source=20571" }, "result_ending_range": 8, "result_description": "

Terrific. Keep reading about COIVD-19 on Health.com and stay safe!

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Is the Coronavirus Worse Than the Flu? Here’s How the Two Illnesses Compare

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While Health is trying to keep our content as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDCWHO, and their local public health department as resources.

", "result_title": "You Are Certified to Debate on Social Media." }, { "result_starting_range": 9, "button": { "_type": "button", "title": "Sign Up for Newsletters", "src": "https://x.specialoffers.meredith.com/ats/show.aspx?cr=588&fm=201®source=20571" }, "result_ending_range": 10, "result_description": "

You are definitely in the know! Keep coming back to Health.com for the latest information.

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Is the Coronavirus Worse Than the Flu? Here’s How the Two Illnesses Compare

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While Health is trying to keep our content as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDCWHO, and their local public health department as resources.

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